Fair Line Value

Sharp lines.
No hype.

Data-driven recommendations
for AFL & MLB

We publish every selection and every result in real time — win or lose. No lock-of-the-day hype, no cherry-picked track record. Just calibrated numbers you can verify yourself.

Fair Line Value

How it works

Every week, our models score games across AFL and MLB using closing-line value and calibration — not gut picks. When a game clears our threshold, you get the pick straight to Telegram: team, line, bet. That's it.

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Every pick, tracked in public.

We bring 20 years of betting experience to the models behind these picks. The public track record is newer — every pick has been logged since day one, win or lose, with no cherry-picking and nothing deleted.

MLB Track Record

time team odds result profit
07/28/2026 06:41 PM TEX 150 WIN 1.50
07/28/2026 07:41 PM CHA 104 LOSS -1.00
07/28/2026 09:41 PM OAK 124 WIN 1.24
07/28/2026 09:41 PM COL 184 LOSS -1.00
07/28/2026 09:46 PM SFN 126 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 12:36 PM PIT -134 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 01:06 PM WAS 106 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 01:11 PM BAL 150 WIN 1.50
07/29/2026 03:46 PM SFN 100 WIN 1.00
07/29/2026 07:11 PM CIN 108 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 09:41 PM OAK 130 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 10:11 PM SEA 122 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 07:11 PM NYN 136 LOSS -1.00
07/29/2026 07:41 PM CHA 124 WIN 1.24
07/30/2026 02:11 PM CHA -116 WIN 0.86
07/31/2026 06:11 PM CIN 112 WIN 1.12
07/31/2026 07:08 PM SLN 170 LOSS -1.00
07/31/2026 07:11 PM ARI 126 WIN 1.26
07/31/2026 08:41 PM COL -102 WIN 0.98
07/31/2026 10:11 PM MIN 148 WIN 1.48
07/31/2026 07:11 PM NYN -112 LOSS -1.00
08/01/2026 06:41 PM CIN 106 LOSS -1.00
08/01/2026 07:06 PM BAL 128 LOSS -1.00
08/01/2026 07:11 PM HOU 110 WIN 1.10
08/01/2026 07:16 PM ATL -164 WIN 0.61
08/01/2026 07:16 PM CHN -110 WIN 0.91
08/01/2026 08:10 PM COL -114 WIN 0.88
08/01/2026 08:41 PM SDN -144 WIN 0.69
08/01/2026 09:41 PM OAK 146 LOSS -1.00
08/01/2026 09:39 PM ANA 136 LOSS -1.00
08/02/2026 01:36 PM BAL 120 LOSS -1.00
08/02/2026 01:41 PM CLE -156 WIN 0.64
08/02/2026 01:41 PM TBA -150 LOSS -1.00
08/02/2026 01:41 PM CIN -144 WIN 0.69
08/02/2026 02:11 PM HOU -126 WIN 0.79
08/02/2026 02:21 PM CHN 112 LOSS -1.00
08/02/2026 03:11 PM COL -126 WIN 0.79
08/02/2026 03:16 PM ANA 198 WIN 1.98
08/02/2026 04:06 PM OAK 102 LOSS -1.00
08/03/2026 07:06 PM NYA -205 LOSS -1.00
08/03/2026 07:41 PM MIL -142 LOSS -1.00
08/03/2026 08:10 PM HOU -132 LOSS -1.00
08/03/2026 08:41 PM COL 148 LOSS -1.00
08/03/2026 08:06 PM CHN 110 WIN 1.10
08/04/2026 06:40 PM CIN -136 WIN 0.74
08/04/2026 06:40 PM WAS 216 LOSS -1.00
08/04/2026 07:41 PM KCA 130 WIN 1.30
08/04/2026 09:41 PM SDN 114 WIN 1.14
08/04/2026 09:41 PM SEA -120 LOSS -1.00
08/05/2026 02:21 PM CHN -120 WIN 0.83
08/05/2026 03:11 PM COL 142 LOSS -1.00
08/05/2026 06:36 PM BAL -122 WIN 0.82
08/05/2026 06:40 PM NYN -104 WIN 0.96
08/05/2026 07:06 PM SLN 138 WIN 1.38
08/05/2026 07:11 PM CHA 118 LOSS -1.00
08/05/2026 06:41 PM WAS 170 WIN 1.70
08/05/2026 07:16 PM MIA 114 LOSS -1.00
08/05/2026 09:41 PM DET 138 LOSS -1.00
08/06/2026 12:36 PM ANA 176 WIN 1.76
08/06/2026 01:11 PM NYN 112 WIN 1.12
08/06/2026 02:11 PM MIL -122 WIN 0.82
08/06/2026 02:21 PM CHN 102 WIN 1.02
08/06/2026 04:11 PM DET 114 WIN 1.14
08/06/2026 06:06 PM WAS 280 LOSS -1.00
08/06/2026 07:11 PM CHA 164 LOSS -1.00
08/07/2026 06:41 PM TOR 188 WIN 1.88
08/07/2026 07:11 PM OAK 225 LOSS -1.00
08/07/2026 07:41 PM CHA 120 LOSS -1.00
08/07/2026 07:41 PM MIN 150 WIN 1.50
08/07/2026 09:41 PM ARI 146 WIN 1.46
08/07/2026 10:16 PM SFN 118 WIN 1.18
08/07/2026 08:11 PM KCA 150 LOSS -1.00
08/08/2026 06:06 PM PHI -158 LOSS -1.00
08/08/2026 06:46 PM WAS 130 WIN 1.30
08/08/2026 07:16 PM CHA 116 WIN 1.16
08/08/2026 07:16 PM SLN -148 LOSS -1.00
08/08/2026 07:16 PM SDN -116 WIN 0.86
08/08/2026 08:11 PM ARI 170 LOSS -1.00
08/09/2026 01:35 PM ATL 124 WIN 1.24
08/09/2026 01:36 PM PHI -190 WIN 0.53
08/09/2026 01:40 PM MIA -142 WIN 0.70
08/09/2026 02:10 PM KCA 142 LOSS -1.00
08/09/2026 02:10 PM CHA -102 WIN 0.98
08/09/2026 02:10 PM MIN 228 LOSS -1.00
08/09/2026 02:15 PM SLN -158 WIN 0.63
08/09/2026 02:35 PM TEX -129 LOSS -1.00
08/09/2026 04:05 PM SFN 108 LOSS -1.00
08/09/2026 04:10 PM ARI 131 WIN 1.31
08/10/2026 07:15 PM NYN 129 WIN 1.29
08/10/2026 09:38 PM ANA 101 LOSS -1.00
08/10/2026 09:41 PM OAK 132 LOSS -1.00
08/10/2026 09:41 PM MIL -108 LOSS -1.00
08/10/2026 10:10 PM KCA 258 LOSS -1.00
08/11/2026 06:41 PM MIA 104 WIN 1.04
08/11/2026 07:06 PM NYA -130 WIN 0.77
08/11/2026 07:08 PM BOS 128 LOSS -1.00
08/11/2026 07:16 PM NYN 108 LOSS -1.00
08/11/2026 07:46 PM SLN 146 WIN 1.46
08/11/2026 09:39 PM ANA 120 WIN 1.20
08/11/2026 09:41 PM COL 150 WIN 1.50
08/11/2026 09:41 PM OAK 136 LOSS -1.00
08/11/2026 09:46 PM SFN 168 WIN 1.68
08/11/2026 07:41 PM BAL -104 WIN 0.96Season: 55-48 (+13.74 units) since July 28

AFL Track Record

time BetType Side Line Odds Units Result ProfitUnits
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Spread GEE -11.5 -115 6.1 Win 5.3
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Spread POR 48.5 -115 5.2 Win 4.5
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Spread MEL 14.5 -115 5.3 Win 4.6
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Spread WC 44.5 -115 3.5 Win 3
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Total Over 169.5 -115 2.9 Loss -2.9
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Spread RIC 50.5 -115 4.9 Loss -4.9
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Total Under 170.5 -115 1.4 Win 1.2
7/15/2026 15:31:22 Spread ESS 39.5 -115 0.6 Win 0.5
7/27/2026 12:03:17 Spread CAR 25.5 -115 2.5 Win 2.2
7/27/2026 12:03:17 SpreadDog CAR 25.5 -115 1 Win 0.9
7/27/2026 12:03:17 Spread MEL 3.5 -115 2.5 Win 2.2
7/27/2026 12:03:17 ML MEL -140 5.2 Win 3.7
7/29/2026 7:01:45 SpreadDog GWS 2.5 -115 0.6 Win 0.5
8/1/2026 17:37:25 ML GWS 105 1.6 Win 1.7
8/1/2026 18:34:33 Spread WES -44.5 -115 0.5 Win 0.4
8/1/2026 18:34:33 Spread GWS -3.5 -115 0.5 Win 0.4
8/1/2026 18:34:33 Total Under 174.5 -115 0.5 Loss -0.5
8/1/2026 21:00:48 ML WES -260 1.8 Loss -1.8
8/1/2026 21:00:48 ML BRI -135 0.8 Win 0.6
8/1/2026 21:00:48 Spread RIC -54.5 -115 0.5 Win 0.4
8/2/2026 0:54:08 Total Under 180.5 -115 0.5 Loss -0.5
8/2/2026 11:22:43 Spread MEL 13.5 -115 2.5 Win 2.2
8/2/2026 11:22:43 ML MEL 165 8.3 Win 13.7
8/2/2026 11:22:43 SpreadDog MEL 13.5 -115 1 Win 0.9
8/2/2026 11:22:43 Spread STK 4.5 -115 0.5 Loss -0.5
8/2/2026 11:22:43 ML STK 110 5.3 Loss -5.3
8/2/2026 11:22:43 SpreadDog STK 4.5 -115 0.6 Loss -0.6
8/3/2026 11:40:41 Total Under 171.5 -115 0.4 Loss -0.4
8/3/2026 11:40:41 Total Under 183.5 -115 0.4 Win 0.3
8/3/2026 11:40:41 SpreadDog RIC 57.5 -115 1 Loss -1
8/3/2026 11:40:41 Spread GWS -18.5 -115 0.6 Loss -0.6
8/3/2026 11:40:41 ML GWS -275 5.5 Loss -5.5
8/3/2026 23:26:35 Total Over 171.5 -115 0.4 Loss -0.4
8/3/2026 23:26:35 SpreadDog WC 21.5 -115 0.6 Win 0.5
8/7/2026 18:18:48 ML COL -175 3.1 Win 1.8
8/7/2026 23:31:05 Spread POR -48.5 -115 2.6 Loss -2.6
8/7/2026 23:31:05 SpreadDog POR 48.5 -115 1 Loss -1Season: 37-19 (+23.00 units) since July 15

Fair Line Value provides sports analytics and informational content only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or a guarantee of profit. Sports betting involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction to use any information provided. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact your local problem gambling helpline for support.